The Wizards are not a run-it-back team said general manager Tommy Sheppard at his end-of-season news conference. And that means changes are coming. Based on Sheppard’s words, someone of consequence, if not multiple players, will be elsewhere by the start of next season.
Let’s try to predict them.
Below, I’ve listed the 17 players who were under contract with the Wizards at the end of the 2020-21 season. I’ll try my best to guess — not report, just guess — how likely each player is to remain on the roster when training camp begins in late September.
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Ish Smith, G
Contract status: Unrestricted free agent
Odds he returns: 20 percent
Analysis: Smith had more positive moments than negative ones during his two years in Washington, but his fit with Russell Westbrook is funky. Lineups with the two playing together didn’t work swimmingly. A couple of dribble-happy point guards who aren’t 3-point shooters isn’t the way to truck forward in the modern game. The Wizards, meanwhile, will look for long-range shooters this summer. Smith is a helpful backup point guard, and he was one of the team’s better defenders this last season. He’s pesky and can get into smaller ballhandlers. But especially after the season Raul Neto had, Smith ended the season as the group’s third point guard. He’ll have a job somewhere, but it will most likely not be in D.C.
Cassius Winston, G
Contract status: Restricted free agent
Odds he returns: 49 percent
Analysis: Not many teams got good looks at their two-way players this past season. The Wizards had one with Garrison Mathews because it was his second season with the organization and he spent most of his time with the NBA squad. But they didn’t get to see Winston much. The G League season was short and in a secluded bubble. When the world is normal, the Go-Go are practicing in the same building as the Wizards. Instead, the G League affiliate merged with New Orleans for a shortened season. The field gets a 51-percent advantage because two-way players are on the fringe of the roster and anything can happen when those players hit free agency, but the Wizards could want to see what they have in Winston under usual circ*mstances, too.
Isaac Bonga, G/F
Contract status: Unrestricted free agent (probably)
Odds he returns: 25 percent
Analysis: If I’m right, I’ll have to wish a hearty goodbye to Isaac Bonga’s defensive on/off watch. The Wizards defense was 8.7 points per 100 possessions better when Bonga was on the floor this past season, according to Cleaning The Glass. That number was 9.9 the season before. But he progressively lost playing time during the season, and his offense doesn’t seem to be getting better. Technically, the Wizards could make him a restricted free agent, but there’s a realistic chance they send him into unrestricted free agency instead since his qualifying offer of $2.1 million is a little more than a minimum contract, which is what he’d command on the open market. The Wizards could bring him back, but if they want to make changes, he could be one of them.
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Bradley Beal, G
Contract status: One year, $33.7 million remaining ($36.4 million player option in 2022-23)
Odds he returns: 95 percent
Analysis: If I asked the Wizards, they’d tell me I was five percent short with my prediction, but I have to hedge somewhat. Sheppard has insisted for years that the team has every intention of building around Beal. And he restated that once again recently. But Beal also can become a free agent next summer, and the Wizards are coming off a 34-38 season. They may plan to keep him, but crazier things have happened in the NBA than Washington having to swerve from their strategy. But it’s not like Beal is busting down doors to ask out. He insists he wants to stay. The Wizards can offer him a lucrative extension in October. If he turns it down, the clock starts ticking even louder. But, of course, if he and the Wizards got that far, it would mean he’s starting training camp on the roster.
Russell Westbrook, G
Contract status: One year, $44.2 million remaining ($47.1 million player option in 2022-23)
Odds he returns: 96 percent
Analysis: Yes, 96 is greater than 95. And that’s because Westbrook’s future is tied to Beal’s. He still has a couple of seasons remaining on a supermax contract, which people around the league view as too expensive for him. There aren’t any obvious supermax colleagues to trade him for, considering he’s already been swapped for Chris Paul and John Wall. The Wizards are trying to win as many games as possible in 2021-22. They almost certainly wouldn’t receive equal on-court value for him, which means they would trade him only if their objectives change — namely if they decided to rebuild. And the only way they’d tear the roster down is if they had to deal Beal, for whatever the reason. Westbrook isn’t your ideal point guard for a young, rebuilding team, which is what they’d have to transition to if the Beal situation flipped. But Beal would be gone by then, which is why Westbrook narrowly edges him out here — even if neither of the Wizards’ two stars leaving D.C. this summer is at all likely.
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Alex Len, C
Contract status: Unrestricted free agent
Odds he returns: 20 percent
Analysis: Len started more games than any Wizards center this past season, but there is an argument he’s less likely to return than any of the other big men. Thomas Bryant will come back from his ACL tear at some point, hopefully in the early part of the season. Daniel Gafford has a couple of years remaining on his contract. That leaves just a third-string center position. And yes, that could go to Len. But it also could go to someone else the Wizards deem more fitting, especially considering the third-stringer could receive legitimate playing time at the beginning of the season, when Bryant may still be recovering from the knee injury.
Robin Lopez, C
Contract status: Unrestricted free agent
Odds he returns: 30 percent
Analysis: Here’s a center who would be more fitting than Len. Lopez had a hook-happy campaign for the Wizards and controlled the paint on defense. But he also could be too expensive for Washington, which is why his odds to return remain less than his ones to sign elsewhere. He received $7.3 million on a one-year deal last offseason and then outperformed expectations. He may not command as much money this time, but he’s also due more than the Wizards prefer to pay for that role. They will be up against the luxury tax line, and the chances they go over it for Lopez, who could be the third-string center are slim. Of course, there are other ways Lopez could return as a backup.
Will Thomas Bryant (left) and Rui Hachimura be on the Wizards roster next season? (Rocky Widner / NBAE via Getty Images)
Thomas Bryant, C
Contract status: One year, $8.7 million remaining
Odds he returns: 80 percent
Analysis: Yes, the aforementioned way Lopez could end up a second-stringer is if the Wizards trade Bryant for help at another position, possibly for reinforcements on the wing. But that’s certainly not the most likely scenario. Bryant is still working his way back from an ACL tear. And as long as he’s hurt, he has more value to the Wizards than he does to anyone else, considering no one is giving up the house for an expiring, offensive-minded center who could miss the beginning of the season with a serious knee injury. The Wizards may have to go into next season with Gafford starting and then hope Bryant comes back as the player he was pre-injury. This is a realistic ambition considering he’s still only 23 years old, a skill-based player more than an athleticism-based one and has a renowned work ethic. Still, the Wizards will have to rehab Bryant’s value as he rehabs his knee. It’ll take him stepping on the court again to do it.
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Deni Avdija, F
Contract status: Three years, $15.9 million remaining
Odds he returns: 90 percent
Analysis: It’s difficult to imagine a scenario where the Wizards don’t bring Avdija back. They just selected him No. 9 in the draft less than a year ago and were high on his prospects until he suffered a season-ending leg injury. But it’s also difficult to slide his odds to return near 100 percent, considering if the Wizards aren’t going to run it back and if they do hope to make a significant change to the roster. Giving up Avdija could be what it takes. What if they want to bring in a third big name to play next to Westbrook and Beal — not necessarily an All-Star, but a Myles Turner type? They’d have to at least discuss parting with Avdija, right? But that’s a highly specific scenario. And, of course, Avdija wouldn’t be the only player in that conversation, either.
Rui Hachimura, F
Contract status: Two years, $11.2 million remaining
Odds he returns: 90 percent
Analysis: Let’s give Hachimura the same odds as Avijda, considering an opposing front office could be as likely to ask for either in a hypothetical trade. But there’s another element to Hachimura, too. The Wizards have to decide if they want to pay him soon. The upcoming season is his final one before he’s extension eligible. It’s not like he’ll command a max contract, but he will require a raise. How much might the Wizards be willing to pay him? They don’t have to make that decision yet, but it’s a discussion they’ll have to bring up internally at some point in the next year. Why not start it now?
Daniel Gafford, C
Contract status: Two years, $3.7 million remaining (2021-22 non-guaranteed, 2022-23 team option)
Odds he returns: 90 percent
Analysis: Why not put Gafford in the same category as Hachimura and Avdija after the way he played during his two months with the Wizards? He’s the most athletic big man they’ve employed in a decade. He’s an ideal pairing with both Westbrook and Beal, someone who doesn’t need the ball, draws defenders into the paint, set screens and protects the rim on the other end. He has to improve his conditioning. He can’t start if he’s incapable of playing more than 20-or-so minutes. But other teams saw what the Wizards did, too. If Sheppard is negotiating a roster-shifting trade this summer, whoever he is speaking with may ask for Gafford. It’s difficult to put the center at 100 percent because of that.
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Chandler Hutchison, F
Contract status: One year, $4 million remaining
Odds he returns: 51 percent
Analysis: I’m inclined to say Hutchison will be back since he’s under contract for more than the minimum. But that also could be why the Wizards send him off. Washington is dangerously close to the luxury tax line, but attaching a sweetener to Hutchison so another team takes him into their cap space could be an easy way to open up wiggle room below it. Still, that scenario is less likely than the 25-year-old remaining on the roster into next season, even if he doesn’t play a substantial role on the 2021-22 team.
Raul Neto, G
Contract status: Unrestricted free agent
Odds he returns: 40 percent
Analysis: I’ll give Neto a better chance to return than any of the other unrestricted free agents, though I still think he’s more likely to sign elsewhere. Because he was in Washington for just one season, the Wizards are allowed to pay him only a hair more than the minimum before they have to dig into their exceptions. As I wrote earlier this week, that may be all Neto commands. This free-agency class is loaded with competent point guards. But if he receives an offer for $3-4 million, he may not turn that down, considering that’s nearly twice what Washington could propose.
Davis Bertans, F
Contract status: Four years, $65 million remaining (only $5 million of $16 million salary in 2024-25, the final year of the contract, is guaranteed)
Odds he returns: 75 percent
Analysis: Surely, there are scenarios where the Wizards would trade Bertans, but similar to Westbrook’s situation, they’re probably not ones that bring equal value back to D.C. And that’s the problem. It’s difficult to justify Bertans’ bulky contract after he showed up out of shape, then underperformed in Year 1. But he also was still a net positive on a team that desperately needs 3-point shooting. The Wizards can’t just attach picks to Bertans to give him away without bringing back equivalent help. Maybe they include him in a big-contract swap. Or maybe they throw him into a multi-player deal for a famed name. But like with Bryant and Westbrook, Bertans the player is more helpful to the Wizards than Bertans the trade piece, which makes his chances of staying greater than not.
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Garrison Mathews, G
Contract status: Restricted free agent
Odds he returns: 45 percent
Analysis: If the Wizards want to re-sign Mathews, who was on a two-way contract for the second consecutive season in 2020-21, they have the upper hand. A decision might come down to what a new coach thinks of him. If the 2021-22 Wizards want to use Mathews the same way last season’s team did, keeping him out of the rotation in important moments, then they can’t justify paying him more than the minimum. But if they view him as someone who can play 20 minutes each night, then a return becomes more viable, considering he helps with the team’s greatest deficiency: 3-point shooting, while providing lively defense.
Anthony Gill, F
Contract status: One year, $1.5 million (non-guaranteed)
Odds he returns: 50 percent
Analysis: I’m punting on this one. Sheppard has been a Gill advocate since before the 28-year-old forward even arrived in Washington. He is on a minimum contract for 2021-22, but the money doesn’t guarantee until a few days into free agency, meaning the Wizards have time to find a filler for his roster spot. If they can add a wing or shooter, maybe Gill is out of a job. But he had promising moments near the end of this season. He’s cheap so he could be back.
Caleb Homesley, G
Contract status: Three years, $5.2 million (all non-guaranteed)
Odds he returns: 1 percent
Analysis: The Wizards signed Homesley, who played for their G League affiliate in 2020-21, to a non-guaranteed contract on the last day of the regular season and didn’t even bring him to the playoffs. The three-year deal is common for teams who want to have that player in training camp and then release and sign him to their G League team. Surely, that’s what the Wizards have planned. I’ll leave open the possibility Homesley plays his way onto the roster in October, just in case.
(Top photo of Beal and Westbrook: Ned Dishman / NBAE via Getty Images)
